陳鳳翔:灣區人幣.龍飛鳳翔

2020-11-23
陳鳳翔
香港城市大學MBA課程協理主任
 
AAA

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(註:本文為「大灣區傑出女企業家奬」場刋撰文,原文刋登在11月8日馬來西亞的《南洋商報》(http://www.enanyang.my言论/央行数字货币新兴市场秀丽陈凤翔博士www.enanyang.my言论/央行数字货币新兴市场秀丽陈凤翔博士 ),及於11月11日被《經濟日報》引述http://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/lifestyle/wealth/ckashek/68911,現把中英文版同時轉載)

適值「大灣區傑出女企業家奬」期間,深圳改革四十周年再有新動向。面對美國政客打壓、美元系統風險上升,數碼化貨幣的灣區定位突出,意義深遠。

隕落掙扎  國際秩序失衡

大半個世紀前,二戰結束,聯合國成立,國際秩序重整。總部設在美國的聯合國,演生了大量多邊組織,世衛、世銀等都受出資大國所支配,國際貨幣基金組織也成為全球標準的制定機構,看似公平。

超越英國經濟近半百年後(參考橋水基金的達利奧),美元地位在那時被確立(布雷顿森林體系),登上環球寶座。美元背後有黃金,各國貨幣與其「雙掛鈎」,用於歐洲重建。 但好景不常,七十年代已不能兌換黃金,匯率變浮動。然而,國際遊戲規則更牢牢被掌控,「反洗錢」成為美元全球「長臂管轄」的借口。 

近年,美國經濟下滑,減少國際組織付款,多次退出國際舞台(巴黎氣候協議、萬國郵聯等)。不遵循常規及標準,一言「敵對國家」便自行制裁伊朗,金融操刀,英資銀行被罸被禁,換人改組。

無他,經濟不景,多個範疇被超車。為選票,政客不擇手段,國際秩序失衡。

崛起超車  貨幣危機呈現

東方這邊廂,擺脫殖民,絶大多數也在戰後立國。不同理由的跌跌撞撞,例如文革十年浩劫,或越南和緬甸個案等,今天一一甦醒,成為朝氣蓬勃的新興市場。

放下悲痛,摸石過河,四十年的改革,解決民生溫飽,步入小康之家,中國制造攀上峰嶺;世上沒有完美無瑕,發展帶來污染或社會關懷等問題,需要持續改善良,需要市場開放。

面對美國的野蠻欺凌,包括高調資助反共媒體的活動(見美國「中國問題工作組報告」),國際形象被嚴重抺黑的情況可想而知。隨着科技和金融的制裁恐嚇,美元系統已成最大風險,貨幣危機呈現。

此時此刻,深圳被委以重任(見圖),協同灣區城市制定新體制、推動「雙循環」,既可複製全國,也可輻射東南亞等新興地。屬於科創的「央行數字貨幣」,可擺脫美元全面封殺,香港離岸人民幣中心隱現其專業價值和貢獻。

中國已是全球貿易大國,未來的三、五年,央行數碼貨幣必帶動深圳伴隨國家再次起飛,願各得奬者,憑著妳們的優秀才能,參與這個展翅機遇:

南方靜水鄉,雨澤映朝陽。

草綠雲山翠,龍飛喚鳳翔。


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CBDC Facilitating Development of the Emerging Market

by Dr. Wilson CHAN

Associate Director of MBA Programme, City University of HK

During the 40th anniversary of Shenzhen's reform, Shenzhen (China) has once again been designated as one of the key engines in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) by the Beijing Government. The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the GBA is timely and prominent with far-reaching implications in response to the suppression from the US and the rising systemic risk of the US dollar.

Falling and Deceiving, Chaotic International Order 

Almost 75 years ago, the United Nations (UN) was founded after World War II to reorganize world order. Headquartered in the US, the UN has incorporated many specialized agencies into the organization. These agencies, such as the WHO and World Bank, are controlled and dominated by their largest funding countries. The International Monetary Fund also appeared to have become a global equitable standard-setting organization.

After the US replaced the UK as the world's largest economy, it took nearly half a century for the US dollar to surpass the British Pound and become the world and global reserve currency (Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, 2020). The dollar was backed by gold such that other currencies could be effectively pegged against both the US Dollar and gold (Bretton Woods System). This new US Dollar status contributed to the European Recovery Program (the Marshall Plan). Unfortunately, in the early 1970s, the dollar was suspended for gold convertibility, leading to a floating exchange rate. However, the role of the US Dollar remained bold and even more prominent in the international currency market by adopting “long-arm jurisdiction” to curb anti-money laundering.  

In recent years, the US economy has been declining. Grants and subsidies for international organizations reduced, and the US government has repeatedly withdrawn from international treaties, such as The Paris Climate Agreement and UPU. Moreover, based on its unilateral judgment, it fails to follow international practices to impose sanctions on Iran. US regulators commonly impose huge fines on various international financial institutions. As a result of the economic downturn in the US, many sectors are lagging behind other countries; and politicians are doing whatever possible to secure their votes. These will inevitably cause an unstable international order.

Rising and Overtaking, Emerging Financial Crisis

Furthermore, after the post-War collapse of colonialism, most developing countries in the world went through the process of rebuilding. Historically and practically, they had different problems or issues to handle. For example, there was the Cultural Revolution in China and other different cases in countries like Vietnam and Myanmar. All these countries had boarded the train of reform to become vibrant emerging markets.

To surmount previous grief and "cross the river by feeling the stones", to improve the livelihood of the people by being reformative and innovative, and ultimately to achieve an all-rounded well-off society - this is something that China has been doing. There is no such thing as a perfect world. China became the world's biggest manufacturer at the cost of environmental pollution and a cold-hearted society, and thus further reform and opening up are needed.  

The US is behaving brutally like a bully against China almost in every aspect. For instance, it plays a high-profile role in supporting media that are anti-Chinese Communist Party (The U.S. “China Task Force Report”, 2020.9.30.), so to tarnish the international image of China. The US also suppresses Chinese technology companies and threatens to make financial sanctions. Hence, the US dollar system has gradually become a high risk to China (as well as other countries).

At this critical moment, Shenzhen has been entrusted with the role (see diagram) of leading the GBA to formulate a new system that facilitates the Dual-cycle Model, that can be replicated to the whole of China and radiated to other emerging countries in Southeast Asia. The CBDC is a new technology that eliminates linkage with the US dollar. For cross-border use, Hong Kong, as the offshore RMB center, will be able to contribute its relevant professional expertise.

China has already been the major trading partner of most countries in the world. In the next three to five years, the CBDC will certainly facilitate Shenzhen, together with China, to take off once more.

 

文章只屬作者觀點,不代表本網立場。

 

 

延伸閱讀
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